Framework for Large-Scale Economic Evaluation of Trucking (FLEET)
The FLEET model simulates the impacts of various policy options and market conditions on the decarbonization of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles.
About the Model
Medium- and heavy-duty trucks are central to economic growth and well-being because they move around a high volume of people and goods. At the same time, they are disproportionately large contributors to air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Even though they make up about 5 percent of total vehicles on US roads, medium- and heavy-duty vehicles accounted for approximately 26 percent of the transportation sector's greenhouse gas emissions in 2020. The situation creates a dilemma for policymakers: how do we reduce those costs without sacrificing the economic benefits?
Policies to reduce the environmental impacts of trucks and buses include electrifying the sector and improving fuel efficiency for diesel vehicles. From the federal to the local level, the government has designed and implemented policies that help address these issues. The Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Investments and Jobs Act provide billions of dollars in funding for medium- and heavy-duty vehicle electrification. Many states have also adopted truck electrification goals, and the federal government has implemented emissions standards for this sector.
To evaluate such policies, RFF is developing a comprehensive model representing the US shipping sector. The Framework for Large-Scale Economic Evaluation of Trucking (FLEET) Model will be capable of simulating scenarios over the next decade that consider various policies (e.g., subsidies for electric and fuel-cell trucks) and market conditions (e.g., battery costs and diesel fuel prices).
The model is comprised of four stages, described below:
- Stage 1: truck manufacturers simultaneously choose the fuel economy of their trucks
- Stage 2: truck manufacturers choose the prices of all trucks in their portfolio, engaging in Bertrand price competition.
- Stage 3: fleets choose which trucks to own and operate, based on prices, operating costs, and other truck characteristics.
- Stage 4: carriers choose how much to utilize each truck based on factors such as per-ton-mile operating costs and demand for shipping.
Stay tuned for RFF research using the FLEET model coming in early Fall 2024.
