Climate Insights 2020: Partisan Divide
A breakdown of survey results by party shows that although the views of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents differ, they also converge in ways that may be unexpected.
Introduction
In Climate Insights 2020: Overall Trends, we showed that huge majorities of Americans believe that the earth has been warming due to human activity and that governments, businesses, and individuals should take steps to address it. In Climate Insights 2020: Policies and Politics, we described how large—and sometimes huge—majorities of Americans favor various policies for mitigating future global warming. Similarly widespread support for specific government policies to reduce the risks of wildfires and floods, and to help people cope with damage from wildfires and floods, was documented in Climate Insights 2020: Natural Disasters.
These huge majorities in favor of adaptation and mitigation policies, as documented in those reports, cannot be achieved without many Democrats, Independents, and Republicans agreeing.
And when majorities of the major parties agree, policymakers can pursue those policies knowing that many of their constituents are on the same side. In this report, we assess the degree to which majorities of Democrats, Independents, and Republicans agree on various aspects of global warming in 2020. We then use data from prior surveys in our series to track changes in the partisan gap over the past two decades.
During the past four years, American partisans have become increasingly contemptuous of their opponents. According to national surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center between 2016 and 2019, Democrats have become increasingly likely to give Republicans a “cold” rating on a “feeling thermometer,” which is thought to reflect attitudes. And during those years, Republicans have become increasingly likely to give Democrats a cold rating (Pew Oct. 2019).
Figure 1. Percentage of partisans who gave members of the other party a “somewhat cold” or “very cold” rating on a “feeling thermometer”
These huge majorities in favor of adaptation and mitigation policies cannot be achieved without many Democrats, Independents, and Republicans agreeing.
One might imagine that this increasing antipathy could, in turn, create a growing gap between the parties’ constituents on policy issues such as global warming. But as we shall see, that has not happened.
Figure 2. Party breakdown of survey respondents
A methodological note: We separated Republican, Democratic, and Independent respondents based on their answers to a question asking how they usually think of themselves. Our percentages of the three groups (23%, 34%, and 43%, respectively) closely resemble the same percentages as measured recently (July 30–August 12, 2020) by Gallup (26%, 31%, and 41%, respectively).
Expert Insight
While climate may be a particularly important subject to roughly one in four Americans, it is also not the only issue that people vote on. As wildfires rage in the West and the Southeast experiences a particularly active hurricane season, climate change is particularly salient to some at the moment; however, many Americans may be willing to put their climate opinions on the back burner to support candidates who champion other causes.
Whether growing bipartisan support for climate action will influence party politics remains to be seen. We have seen government action on policies ranging from the passage of the Great American Outdoors Act on the one hand to the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on the other. But considering that the majority of Republicans and Democrats support some form of climate action, mitigating and adapting to this crisis could provide a powerful opportunity for bipartisan collaboration.
—Ray Kopp, RFF Vice President for Research and Policy Engagement
Fundamental Beliefs and Attitudes
For 14 out of 21 survey questions (66%) posed to American respondents about fundamental beliefs and attitudes regarding global warming, majorities of Democrats and Republicans alike hold “green” opinions in 2020.
For example, 94% of Democrats believe global warming has been happening, as do 67% of Republicans. 94% of Democrats and 56% of Republicans think warming will continue in the future if nothing is done to address it. 94% of Democrats and 69% of Republicans believe that if warming has been happening, human actions have been responsible for causing it.
Majorities of Democrats and of Republicans also agree about the likely effects of global warming—98% of Democrats and 54% of Republicans believe global warming will be a very or somewhat serious problem for the US if nothing is done to address it. Some 97% of Democrats and 60% of Republicans believe that global warming will be a very or somewhat serious problem for the world if nothing is done to address it.
However, the partisans diverge on whether specific temperature changes have been or will be bad. Whereas 88% of Democrats believe that the warming that has happened over the past 100 years was bad, only 40% of Republicans believe that. And whereas 84% of Democrats believe that a 5-degree Fahrenheit increase in world temperature over the next 75 years would be bad, only 50% of Republicans agree.
Particularly intriguing is the statistic that 76% of Democrats believe that unchecked global warming will hurt them personally at least a moderate amount, but only 26% of Republicans believe the same.
Figure 3. Party breakdown of beliefs about global warming and its effects
97% of Democrats and 60% of Republicans believe that global warming will be a very or somewhat serious problem for the world if nothing is done to address it.
Figure 4. Party breakdown of beliefs about effects and observations of global warming
Majorities of Democrats and Republicans also diverge in their observations of the world around them. Majorities of Democrats (86%) and Republicans (56%) believe they have seen effects of global warming. But although majorities of Democrats believe that, during the last three years, global weather patterns have been more unstable (81%), that global temperatures have been higher (82%), and that weather patterns in the county where they live have been more unstable (60%), only minorities of Republicans hold those views: 41%, 41%, and 26%, respectively.
Majorities of Democrats and of Republicans endorse action to deal with global warming. Democrats are almost unanimously (97–98%) in favor of action by the US government, governments in other countries, US businesses, and average people. Sizable majorities (63–68%) of Republicans expressed these preferences as well. The partisan gap between Democrats and Republicans on these issues ranges from 27 to 50 percentage points and averages 36 percentage points.
Figure 5. Party breakdown of beliefs about actions to deal with global warming
Majorities of both parties think they have already seen effects of global warming and want action to deal with it, though the majorities of Democrats are larger.
Figure 6. Party breakdown of trust in scientists
87% of Democrats and 56% of Republicans trust climate scientists at least a moderate amount, and 84% of Democrats and 55% of Republicans believe that a majority of climate scientists believe that global warming has been happening.
Party identifiers also diverge on what psychologists call "attitude strength" (Petty and Krosnick 1995). Among Democrats, 82% are extremely or very sure of their opinions about whether the earth has been warming over the past 100 years, whereas only 40% of Republicans express that high level of certainty.
Likewise, 78% of Democrats expressed high certainty about whether the world’s temperature will go up over the next 100 years if nothing is done to address it, whereas only 41% of Republicans express high certainty about their opinions on this question.
Similarly, 76% of Democrats said that their opinions about global warming are extremely or very strong, whereas only 30% of Republicans said they hold such strong opinions on the issue.
The partisans are more similar when it comes to how much they believe they know about global warming—82% of Democrats and 67% of Republicans believe they know at least a moderate amount about the issue.
Most importantly, members of the issue public are unequally present among Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. This idea, introduced in Climate Insights 2020: Overall Trends, refers to individuals who are passionate about the issue, who think and talk about it, and who vote based on global warming. Whereas the issue of global warming is extremely important to 43% of Democrats, only 4% of Republicans feel the same way. Thus, when politicians or candidates talk about this issue, Democrats are much more attentive to those comments, whereas Republicans are largely indifferent.
Figure 7. Party breakdown of opinion strength
Mitigation Policies
In general, Republicans tend to oppose aggressive government regulations and government involvement in the economy and the business sector. Democrats tend to be open to government regulation and economic involvement designed to pursue desired goals. Therefore, one might expect that Republicans might be especially likely to oppose emissions reduction policies, whereas Democrats might be especially likely to favor these policies. Although this is true for many policies in this arena, it’s not true for all; remarkably, we see striking agreement between Republicans and Democrats regarding some policies.
Respondents were asked to report their opinions about 24 policies intended to reduce future greenhouse gas emissions. Majorities, and sometimes huge majorities, of Democrats favor all but two of those policies—those majorities range from 57% to 97%.
Majorities of Republicans favor seven of the same policies that are favored by majorities of Democrats.
These areas of common ground are as follows:
- Tax breaks to encourage utilities to produce more electricity from water, wind, and solar power
- Requiring or encouraging power plants to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions
- Encouraging manufacturing of cars, appliances, and buildings that consume less electricity in order to reduce emissions
- Using new methods to reduce emissions from burning coal
- Tax breaks to encourage utilities to produce more electricity from water, wind, and solar powersions by 25% below 2015 levels by 2025T
Majorities of Democrats and Republicans also oppose two policies: tax breaks to encourage more nuclear power plant construction (33% and 44% favor, respectively), and increased taxes on electricity to cause people to use less of it (40% and 12% are in favor, respectively).
Figure 8. Party breakdown of support for “common ground” policies on which the majorities of Democrats and of Republicans agree
Figure 9. Party breakdown of opinions on mitigation policies on which the majorities of Democrats and of Republicans disagree
On the other policies included in the survey, majorities of Democrats and of Republicans do not agree. Minorities of Republicans and majorities of Democrats favor carbon pricing policies and increased gasoline taxes. In general, majorities of Democrats and minorities of Republicans believe that federal stimulus packages (to address the economic crisis associated with COVID-19) should include provisions to invest in the development of new technologies and in maintenance to reduce future emissions.
Figure 10. Party breakdown of opinions on federal stimulus policies on which the majorities of Democrats and of Republicans disagree
Majorities of Democrats and minorities of Republicans favor three policies put into place by President Obama that have been rolled back by President Trump: a mandate to power plants to cut carbon emissions from the electric sector by more than 30% relative to 2005 levels; a plan for the federal government to reduce its own emissions; and a mandate to increase fuel efficiency standards of all new cars and trucks made in the United States to get at least 55 miles per gallon by 2025.
Figure 11. Party breakdown of opinions on Obama-era policies on which the majorities of Democrats and of Republicans disagree
Of the 24 policies, 17 are favored by a majority of Independents, including the 7 that are favored by majorities of Republicans and of Democrats.
Of the seven policies favored by a minority of Independents, two are also favored by minorities of Republicans and Democrats: tax breaks to encourage nuclear power plant construction and increased consumer taxes on electricity.
Four of the other five policies favored by a minority of Independents are: increasing consumer taxes on gasoline, helping companies prevent leaks and pollution from pipelines, spending stimulus money to advance manufacturing of all-electric cars, and installing charging stations for electric cars. For the proposed policy of helping companies make batteries that are smaller and last longer, 50% of Independents were in favor.
For two policies (tax breaks to companies that burn coal but use methods to reduce air pollution, and tax breaks to build nuclear power plants) more Republicans than Democrats are in favor, by margins of 13 and 11 percentage points respectively.
Of the remaining 22 policies, more Democrats than Republicans are in favor by margins ranging from 18 to 58 percentage points and averaging 37 percentage points.
In sum, Democrats are generally more supportive of emissions reduction policies than Republicans, and Independents are generally in between those two groups. And although majorities of both Republicans and Democrats agree with one another about some policies, they disagreed on most.
Adaptation Policies: Wildfires
Respondents were asked about eight policies designed to reduce harm to people and property from wildfires, which are thought by many natural scientists to be more common and more severe due to global warming. Majorities of Democrats and Independents favor all eight of these policies. Majorities of Republicans favor half of the eight.
Most partisans favor government efforts to improve infrastructure to prepare for and deal with wildfire damage. For example, 78% and 75% of Democrats and Republicans, respectively, favor government spending to remove large amounts of dead plants and trees in forests. Also, 94% and 75% of Democrats and Republicans, respectively, want to increase the number of firefighters.
Figure 12. Party breakdown of support for wildfire adaptation policies and opinions on who should be responsible
A majority of Democrats and Republicans, 91% and 79% respectively, favor government regulations requiring new buildings to be more fireproof. Likewise, 84% of Democrats and 64% of Republicans favor government financial assistance to families who lose their homes to wildfires.
Republicans and Democrats diverge on the issue of whether the federal government or state governments should lead action to implement wildfire adaptation policies. A majority of Democrats (84%) prefer that the federal government play the leading role or collaborate with state governments. In contrast, a minority of Republicans prefer this (46%)—with a majority preferring that state government play the leading role.
Democrats and Republicans agree about who should pay for wildfire adaptation policies—the majorities of both parties (60% and 86%, respectively) think that only people living in fire-prone areas should pay to prevent fire damage.
Of the ten questions posed about wildfire policy, the partisan gap ranges from 3% (regarding removing dead vegetation) to 38% (regarding subsidies for wildfire insurance for low-income families), averaging 25%.
Expert Insight
People clearly want at least some federal action on disaster adaptation. Both federal and state leadership have pros and cons here; with state leadership, those in charge may have a more intimate knowledge of what people may need and how to efficiently deliver resources. Conversely, when a disaster hits, states may be reeling, and the federal government might be able to supply resources and assistance that would not otherwise be available.
—Margaret Walls, RFF Senior Fellow
Adaptation Policies: Floods
Majorities of Democrats and of Republicans favor all but one of the seven policies we asked about to reduce harm to people and property from floods. For example, a flood insurance mandate is favored by 77% of Democrats and 66% of Republicans, and flood insurance subsidies for low-income people are favored by 92% of Democrats and 53% of Republicans.
Most Democrats and most Republicans favor government effort to improve infrastructure to prepare for and deal with flood damage. For example, 92% and 80% of Democrats and Republicans, respectively, favor government spending to improve drainage in risky areas. Similarly, 92% and 73% of Democrats and Republicans, respectively, favor regulations to make new buildings more flood-proof.
Most Democrats and most Republicans agree about the federal government’s role in flood protection efforts. 84% of Democrats and 67% of Republicans favor the federal government either leading or collaborating with state governments on such efforts.
Majorities of Democrats and of Republicans also agree on a payment strategy for flood damage adaptation efforts. 60% of Democrats and 86% of Republicans think that only the people living in flood-prone areas should pay to prevent fire damages.
Of the seven flooding questions, the partisan gap ranged from 11% (regarding the government requiring flood insurance) to 37% (regarding subsidies for flood insurance for low-income families), with an average of 21%. Majorities of Democrats and of Republicans agree on six of the seven issues.
Figure 13. Party breakdown of support for flood adaptation policies and opinions on who should be responsible
Economic Consequences of Mitigation Policies
According to some observers, implementing some policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions may increase the cost of American-made goods and services relative to those goods and services produced elsewhere, thus costing consumers and companies alike in the short term. In Climate Insights 2020: Policies and Politics, we saw that very few Americans believe that such undesirable economic side effects result from mitigation efforts. Here, we report how partisans perceive these economic consequences.
Interestingly, majorities of Democrats and of Republicans believe that mitigation policies do not exert ill economic effects, whether at the national level, state level, or their personal levels. Among Democrats, huge majorities (83%–92%) believe that the United States doing things to reduce future global warming would not hurt the national economy, their state economy, the number of available jobs, or their own personal finances and job prospects. These sentiments were expressed by majorities of Republicans (52%–82%) as well. The partisan gap, averaged over these six measures of economic impacts, was 21 percentage points.
Figure 14. Party breakdown of beliefs about how climate action will affect the national economy, the respondent’s state’s economy, and the respondent personally
Majorities of Democrats and of Republicans believe that mitigation policies do not exert ill economic effects, whether at the national level, state level, or their personal levels.
Trends in the Partisan Gap from 1997 to 2020
When our first national survey was conducted in 1997, just before President Bill Clinton and Vice President Al Gore hosted the White House Conference on Climate Change, the partisan gap on many aspects of global warming was small. Over the years since then, however, the partisan gap has grown. The figures below track opinions on various issues related to global warming among Democrats, Republicans, and Independents and document the growth of the partisan gap.
To set the stage for these findings, we illustrate the percent of respondents in our surveys who identified themselves as Democrats, Republicans, and Independents.
Figure 15. Trends in party identification in America
Since 1997—just before the Clinton administration hosted the White House Conference on Climate Change—the partisan gap in climate beliefs has grown.
Overview
In our surveys conducted since 1997, we have asked different questions in different surveys. The availability of measures by years is shown in the Climate Insights 2020: Partisan Divide technical report.
Because we have not asked every survey question each year, in order to document trends over time in the partisan gap, we must make a tradeoff. We can either describe more years using fewer questions, or fewer years using more questions. We describe results using two different approaches, which end up supporting similar conclusions.
Figure 16 shows the average partisan gap on two opinions that were measured in all of our surveys: whether global warming has been happening, and whether, if warming has been happening, it has been caused at least partly by human activity. The partisan gap, which was only 8 percentage points on average in 1997 and 1998, peaked at 30 percentage points in 2011 and stabilized between 24 and 29 percentage points from 2012 to 2020. In 2020, this gap was 26 percentage points, on par with the past eight years.
Figure 16. Trends in the partisan gap using two measures (global warming existence and role of humans) across all years
These data refute the claim that the gap has grown in recent years amid an increasingly polarized political system in the United States.
Figure 17 shows the partisan gap using seven measures included in 10 surveys: (1) that global warming has been happening, (2) that, if warming has been happening, it was caused at least in part by human activity, (3) that government should reduce greenhouse gas emissions by power plants, (4) that CAFE standards should be increased, (5) that energy efficiency of buildings should be increased, (6) that energy efficiency of appliances should be increased, and (7) that climate scientists are trustworthy.
Using those measures, the partisan gap was 9 and 11 percentage points on average in 1997 and 1998, grew to 15 to 31 percentage points during 2007-2013, and stabilized between 22 and 29 percentage points in 2015–2020. In 2020, the gap was 29 percentage points, slightly greater than the previous years of 2018 (22%) and 2015 (23%).
Figure 17. Trends in the partisan gap using the largest common set of (seven) global warming fundamentals measures
Fundamental Beliefs and Attitudes
Next, we describe the magnitude of and trends in the partisan gap for individual opinions over the years.
Global warming has been happening. Since 1997, majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have believed that the earth has probably been warming over the past 100 years. In 2020, 94% of Democrats, 67% of Republicans, and 78% of Independents believed that global warming has been happening. The partisan gap grew from 9 percentage points in 1997 to 27 percentage points in 2020. But the gap has not grown steadily over those years: 2010 marked a point of notable growth, from 15 percentage points the year before to 28 percentage points. The gap has not notably grown during the past eight years.
Figure 18. Proportion of each group who believed the world’s temperature has probably been increasing over the past 100 years
Global warming has been caused mostly or partly by humans. Since 1997, majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have believed that, if the world’s temperature has increased over the past 100 years, warming has been caused at least partly by humans. In 2020, 94% of Democrats reported belief that increases in global temperature were caused mostly or partly by human activities—the highest level of consensus for Democrats. Independents and Republicans also manifest high levels in 2020, although not record highs: 80% of Independents and 69% of Republicans believe that global warming has been attributable to human activities. And again, no notable growth in the partisan gap has occurred since 2011.
Figure 19. Proportion of each group who believed the increase in the world’s temperature over the past 100 years was caused mostly or partly by humans
In 2020, 94% of Democrats, 67% of Republicans, and 78% of Independents believed that global warming has been happening.
Figure 20. Proportion of each group who believed the world’s temperature will probably go up over the next 100 years
Future warming. Since 1997, majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have believed that the earth will probably be warmer in a century if nothing is done to prevent it. In 2020, 94% of Democrats, 72% of Independents, and 56% of Republicans believe that warming will probably continue in the future. No notable growth has occurred in the partisan gap since 2011.
5°F warmer would be bad. Majorities of Democrats and of Independents have consistently believed that 5°F of global warming would be bad, but the proportion of Republicans expressing that belief has hovered around the midline, peaking at 59% in 1997 and dipping to its lowest points of 47% in 2010 and 2015. The partisan gap in 2020 is the biggest observed since 1997 at 34 percentage points.
Figure 21. Proportion of each group who thought 5°F of warming in 75 years would be bad
Figure 22. Proportion of each group who thought global warming will be a very or somewhat serious problem for the United States
Serious problem for the United States. Majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have consistently believed that global warming will be a very or somewhat serious problem for the United States in the future. In 2020, nearly all Democrats surveyed (98%) believe that global warming will be a serious problem for the United States, while 54% of Republicans, and 79% of Independents believe the same. The partisan gap is now 44 percentage points.
Serious problem for the world. Majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have consistently believed that global warming will be a very or somewhat serious problem for the world in the future. In 2020, 97% of Democrats, 60% of Republicans, and 81% of Independents hold this view, with a partisan gap of 37 percentage points (about the same as in 2009).
Figure 23. Proportion of each group who thought global warming will be a very or somewhat serious problem for the world
Government Action
Figure 24. Proportion of each group who thought the US government should do more about global warming
The US government should do more to deal with global warming. Since 1997, majorities of Democrats and Independents have consistently believed that the federal government should do more about global warming. In 2020, 92% of Democrats, 64% of Independents, and 38% of Republicans favor more federal action. The partisan gap is 54 percentage points in 2020.
Governments in other countries should do more to deal with global warming. Since 1997, majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have believed that governments in other countries should do more about global warming. In 2020, 87% of Democrats, 54% of Republicans, and 67% of Independents believe this, with a partisan gap of 33 percentage points.
Figure 25. Proportion of each group who thought that governments in other countries should do more about global warming
Figure 26. Proportion of each group who thought that US businesses should do more about global warming
US businesses should do more to deal with global warming. Since 1997, majorities of Democrats and Independents have believe that US business should do more about global warming. In 2020, 92% of Democrats and 69% of Independents believe that businesses should do more. Minorities of Republicans have favored increased action from businesses, with all-time highs of 58–59% in 1997 and 1998. The partisan gap is 49 percentage points in 2020.
Average people should do more to deal with global warming. Since 1997, majorities of Democrats and Independents have believed that average people should do more about global warming. In 2020, 90% of Democrats and 70% of Independents think that average people should do more. Smaller proportions of Republicans have also favored increased individual action, with all-time highs of 60% in 1997 and 1998. The partisan gap is 43 percentage points in 2020.
Figure 27. Proportion of each group who thought that average people should do more about global warming
Expert Insight
Though there are differences between the parties, the majority of Americans agree that governments, businesses, and individuals should do more to combat climate change. However, that action looks different for these various stakeholders. For individuals, that might include eating less meat or driving less. For businesses, it may take the form of transparent climate pledges and actions enabled by consumer-driven preferences for cleaner goods, such as cutting down on material waste. Governments can do more with regulatory decisions and trade negotiations and reduce their own emissions.
Considering that all three major political affiliations assigned similar beliefs for each of these four categories, the general consensus seems to be that respondents hold high standards which have not yet been met. The question remains, though, whether people will show their approval if these entities do, in fact, rise to the occasion. Will Americans buy more from environmentally conscious businesses even if their prices are higher, or is regulation required to level the playing field? Will Americans vote for “green” candidates? While climate change action continues to grow in the public conversation, I think that incentives will be necessary to enact real change in the market and political spheres. One can infer that Americans appear ready to support that.
—Dallas Burtraw, RFF Darius Gaskins Senior Fellow
Limit Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have consistently believed that the federal government should limit the amount of greenhouse gases that businesses emit. In 2020, 95% of Democrats, 58% of Republicans, and 76% of Independents favored this policy option, with a partisan gap of 37 percentage points (a fairly large increase from past years).
Figure 28. Proportion of each group who thought the federal government should limit the amount of greenhouse gas US businesses emit
Though there are differences between the parties, the majority of Americans agree that governments, businesses, and individuals should do more to combat climate change.
Mitigation Policies
Produce electricity from renewable energy sources. Majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have consistently favored federal government efforts to generate more electricity using water, wind, and solar power. In 2020, 91% of Democrats, 73% of Republicans, and 82% of Independents favor this policy, reflecting a partisan gap of 18 percentage points.
Figure 29. Proportion of each group who favored the federal government giving companies tax breaks to produce more electricity from water, wind and solar power
Reduce emission by power plants. Majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have consistently favored federal government efforts to lower the amount of greenhouse gases produced by power plants. In 2020, 92% of Democrats, 64% of Republicans, and 81% of Independents favor this policy, with a partisan gap of 28 percentage points (about the same as in 2013).
Figure 30. Proportion of each group who favored the government requiring or encouraging with tax breaks reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from power plants
In 2020, 91% of Democrats, 73% of Republicans, and 82% of Independents favor federal government efforts to generate more electricity using water, wind, and solar power, reflecting a partisan gap of 18 percentage points.
Increase CAFE Standards. Majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have consistently favored federal government efforts to cause improvement in the fuel efficiency of cars. In 2020, 86% of Democrats, 52% of Republicans, and 70% of Independents favor this policy option, with a partisan gap of 34 percentage points (about the same as in 2013).
Figure 31. Proportion of each group who thought the government should either require or give tax breaks to construct more energy-efficient cars
Increase energy efficiency of buildings. Majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have consistently favored federal government efforts to improve the energy efficiency of new buildings. In 2020, 86% of Democrats, 61% or Republicans, and 74% of Independents favor this policy option, with a partisan gap of 25 percentage points.
Figure 32. Proportion of each group who thought the government should either require or give tax breaks to construct more energy-efficient buildings
Increase energy efficiency of appliances. Majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have consistently favored federal government efforts to cause appliances to become more energy efficient. In 2020, 86% of Democrats, 52% of Republicans, and 70% of Independents favor this policy option, with a partisan gap of 34 percentage points (about the same as in 2013).
Figure 33. Proportion of each group who thought the government should either require or give tax breaks to construct more energy-efficient appliances
Carbon capture and storage. Majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have consistently favored federal government efforts to encourage reducing air pollution from burning coal. Strikingly, this is most popular among Republicans in 2020 (70%), less popular among Independents (64%), and less popular still (57%) among Democrats. Thus, the partisan gap reversed, with support 13 percentage points higher among Republicans than Democrats.
Figure 34. Proportion of each group who thought the government should require or give tax breaks for the use of new methods to reduce air pollution from coal-fired electricity generation
Expert Insight
Unlike many of the other policies explored in this survey, more Republicans than Democrats or Independents approved of incentives or requirements for carbon capture and storage. Encouraging carbon capture through tax credits may be particularly appealing to Republicans who disapprove of additional regulatory mandates and increased taxes.
In 2018, Congress increased the 45Q tax credits for companies that capture and store or use the carbon dioxide they produce rather than releasing it into the atmosphere. These tax credits could help bolster the use of technologies to fight climate change by reducing the amount of greenhouse gases that coal and other fossil fuels create. These tax credits had bipartisan support in Congress, and Republican leaders have introduced other bills as well that focused on carbon capture and sequestration.
Constructing and operating carbon sequestration technology tends to be costly, so tax credits have the potential to stimulate its growth and technological change, both of which can reduce costs and prices, much like the tax breaks for solar and wind energy. One important note, though, is that how the regulations for eligibility and other elements are written matters—as shown in my research with Brian Prest on refined coal tax credits and my research with Jay Bartlett on 45Q. In order to benefit the environment, these incentives must actually lead to decreased emissions.
—Alan Krupnick, RFF Senior Fellow
Unlike many of the other policies outlined in this survey, more Republicans than Democrats or Independents approved of incentives or requirements for carbon capture and storage.
Nuclear Power Plants. The proportions of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents who favored federal government efforts to provide tax breaks to encourage construction of nuclear power plants have varied above and below 50%. Republicans have almost always favored this more than Democrats and Independents. In 2020, 33% of Democrats, 44% of Republicans, and 37% of Independents favor this policy option, with a partisan gap of 11 percentage points (about the same as in 2006 and after).
Figure 35. Proportion of each group who favored the federal government giving tax breaks to build nuclear power plants
Gasoline Consumption Taxes. An increase in federal taxes on gasoline to cause people to use less of it has almost never gained majority support. Increased gasoline taxes reached and surpassed 50% favoring among Democrats in 2015 and 2018, then gained significant traction in 2020, reaching a peak at 65%. The partisan gap in 2020 was 47 percentage points, an all-time high.
Figure 36. Proportion of each group who favored the federal government increasing taxes on gasoline
Electricity Consumption Taxes. An increase in federal taxes on electricity to cause people to use less of it has never gained majority support. Increased electricity taxes are supported by only 40% of Democrats, 12% of Republicans, and 27% of Independents in 2020, with a partisan gap of 47 percentage points—an all-time high.
Figure 37. Proportion of each group who favored the federal government increasing taxes on electricity
Engagement
Issue Public. The proportion of people in the global warming issue public (for whom the issue is extremely personally important) is largest among Democrats in 2020 at 43%. Meanwhile, 22% of Independents and 4% of Republicans fall into the issue public – a 39-percentage-point partisan gap, which is the largest gap since 1997.
Figure 38. Proportion of each party to whom global warming is extremely personally important
Knowledge about Global Warming. In 2020, reported knowledge about global warming is high among all three groups, and higher among Democrats than among Republicans and Independents, with a 15-percentage-point partisan gap.
Figure 39. Proportion of each group who thought they knew a lot or a moderate amount about global warming
Trust in Climate Scientists
Trust in Climate Scientists. The vast majority of Democrats (87%) and smaller majorities of Republicans (56%) and Independents (74%) trust scientists studying the environment in 2020. The partisan gap is 31 percentage points in 2020.
Figure 40. Proportion of each group who trusted the things scientists say about the environment completely, a lot, or a moderate amount
Trust in climate scientists is at an all-time high among Democrats and Independents.
Expert Insight
Who would have thought that we would question our trust in science? Yet the data show clear disparities in how people view scientists. This may be partly due to increasingly complex problems that science is expected to solve. Creating a polio vaccine and getting to the moon were relatively straightforward challenges, but today’s problems—from climate change to cross-over of zoonotic disease like the novel coronavirus—require a more interdisciplinary, systems approach.
It is also clear that many scientists are not trained to communicate with non-scientists. Several professional societies have taken on this challenge proactively. The Ecological Society of America, for example, runs training programs for ecologists at their annual meeting and in special programs. From my experience, one of the most successful training programs is Stanford University's Earth Leadership Program. And as testament to the importance of this topic, the National Academies are supporting a Standing Committee on Science Communication.
One challenging aspect of this issue is the loss of critical thinking in K–12 education. Many schools don’t have trained science teachers below high school. This situation is exacerbated inunder-resourced schools characterized by poverty or near poverty. Is it any wonder that many people form their opinions from social media, rather than more authoritative sources? I will leave it to others to speculate on the significant separation between parties since 2018, but I believe we will look back on 2020 as a time when society's waning trust in science and our education system as a whole will be put under a microscope to understand… why?
—Ann Bartuska, RFF Senior Advisor
Conclusion
One way to think about these findings is from the perspective of policymakers who wish to be guided at least partly by the opinions of their constituents. If America is divided 50–50 along party lines on the issue of global warming, then the public would offer no guidance in the decisionmaking process, leaving legislators to make decisions based on other considerations.
In the prior reports in this series, we documented large and sometimes huge majorities of Americans agreeing about the existence, cause, and threat of global warming, and about the desirability or undesirability of climate and natural disaster policy options. We also documented large and sometimes huge majorities of Americans agreeing about many other aspects of climate impacts and policy.
In this report, we documented many instances in which majorities of Democrats and Republicans agree with one another—about the existence, cause, and threat of global warming, and about policy approaches to climate mitigation and disaster adaptation.
This is not to say there is no partisan gap in global warming beliefs. As many observers would expect, on many aspects of this issue, endorsement of “green” views is notably more common among Democrats than among Republicans. But as noted above, our 2020 survey indicates that Republicans and Democrats together make up just 57% of Americans. Thus, agreement or disagreement between these individuals is of interest, but it may not be the make-or-break factor in policy decisions, because Independents make up 43% of Americans today—the plurality of the public. Majorities of Independents take “green” positions on many aspects of the issues investigated here. In this light, and given that Republicans do not overwhelmingly oppose climate action, it seems that claims that the nation is hopelessly polarized on this issue are not accurate.
Furthermore, the 26- and 29-percentage-point average partisan gaps shown in Figures 15 and 16 are best understood in comparison to partisan gaps on other issues. Surveys conducted by several institutions during the past six months illustrate the partisan gap for a variety of issues. These examples, shown in Table 1, demonstrate significant variation in the size of the partisan gap across these issues, from 20% (consensus between parties) for banning police chokeholds to 60% (wide partisan divide) for cutting funding for local police departments.
Thus, a partisan gap of 26 to 29 percentage points on global warming falls on the lower end of this spectrum of policies, with similar levels of bipartisan support to maintaining spending on Medicaid, and greater bipartisan support than we see on availability of abortion services and reparations for Black Americans.
Additionally, a recent Pew Research Center study found other large partisan gaps on other important national issues, from immigration to gun control, which had average partisan gaps of 43 and 57 percentage points, respectively (Pew 2019). Clearly, the partisan gaps seen here on global warming are not notable for being huge in the context of contemporary American politics.
Table 1. Partisan gaps on various issues from multiple 2020 surveys
The partisan gaps on global warming are not notably larger than those on other issues.
Data Tool
Survey Methodology
References
ABC News and Ipsos. 2020. While American Public Supports Police Reform, Reckoning with Confederate Past Is More Complicated. Washington, DC: Ipsos.
CBS News. 2020. Americans Weigh In on Issues Before the Supreme Court—CBS News Poll. New York, NY: CBS Corporation.
Gallup. 2020. Party Affiliation.
Kaiser Family Foundation. KFF Health Tracking Poll—May 2020. San Francisco, CA: KFF.
Petty, Richard E. and Jon A. Krosnick. 1995. Attitude Strength: An Overview. In Ohio State University Series on Attitudes and Persuasion, Vol. 4. Attitude Strength: Antecedents and Consequences. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc., 1-24.
Pew Research Center. October 2019. Partisan Antipathy: More Intense, More Personal. Washington, DC: Pew Research Center.
Pew Research Center. December 2019. In a Politically Polarized Era, Sharp Divides in Both Partisan Coalitions. Washington, DC: Pew Research Center.
Quinnipiac University. 2020. 68% Say Discrimination Against Black Americans A “Serious Problem,” Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Slight Majority Support Removing Confederate Statues. Hamden, CT: Quinnipiac University Polls.
Villar, Ana and Jon A. Krosnick. 2011. Global Warming vs. Climate Change, Taxes vs. Prices: Does Word Choice Matter? Climatic Change 105: 1–12. [doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9882-x]
