The World Is Electrifying. What Does That Mean for Our Global Energy Future?
Even as new investments spur the adoption of low-carbon technologies, long-term global energy projections indicate that the world is far off track to meet its climate goals, according to the 2025 Global Energy Outlook.
💡What’s the story?
Even as new investments spur the adoption of low-carbon technologies, long-term global energy projections indicate that the world is far off track to meet its climate goals, according to a new report from Resources for the Future (RFF). Gains in renewable energy, energy efficiency, electric vehicles, and other low-emissions technologies are struggling to offset rising energy demand globally. What’s more, these projections were made in 2024, before the United States’ political landscape changed.
The findings are highlighted in RFF’s annual Global Energy Outlook report, which harmonizes global projections from top energy organizations to understand possible futures for global energy security, affordability, and emissions.
📊 What are the key findings?
The report authors noted the following trends for energy consumption and demand over the coming decades.
- Projected demand for electricity grows rapidly through 2050. Electric vehicles, heat pumps, and other electricity-hungry technologies will drive demand. Data centers supporting artificial intelligence will also increase demand, but are not the leading drivers of demand growth.
- Oil consumption peaks and declines by 2030 under most scenarios. Demand in developed economies peaked in 2005, but demand continues to rise in emerging economies as they grow and industrialize. Global oil consumption falls dramatically under ambitious climate scenarios.
- Geothermal and hydrogen power are poised to grow under many scenarios. Under ambitious climate scenarios, these emerging technologies play an especially important role in our global energy future.
- Energy technologies play distinct roles across regions. The models project that China will lead the world in solar, Europe in wind, and Southeast Asia in geothermal. In Africa, renewables grow rapidly, coal declines, and oil and gas demand remain strong.
- Liquefied natural gas export capacity will likely grow substantially by 2030. What is less clear is whether there will be demand for this growing supply.
Expert Perspective
“The Global Energy Outlook has been around for more than ten years. When I started working on this project ten years ago, the future looked very different. Wind and solar were just picking up steam, and the ‘shale revolution’ in the United States was still young. We wrote then to ‘expect the unexpected,’ and that mantra remains true today. In many ways, we’ve made progress on bending the curve of global greenhouse gas emissions. But it’s abundantly clear that we need much more policy action to meet global climate goals while also enhancing energy security and affordability.”
—Daniel Raimi, RFF fellow
World Electricity Generation
⚡Why is this report noteworthy?
Each year, top energy organizations release long-term projections for the world’s energy future. These projections have different methodologies and assumptions, which make them hard to compare. The Global Energy Outlook synthesizes these projections to offer a broad understanding of how different levels of climate policy may influence the global energy system.
The report categorizes each projection by its energy and climate policy assumptions: reference scenarios assume limited or no new climate policies; evolving scenarios assume that announced policies will be implemented and that technologies will develop according to recent trends; and ambitious climate scenarios assume that the world limits global temperature rise to 1.5°C or 2°C by 2100.
➡️ What’s next?
To meet climate goals, fossil fuel demand will need to fall rapidly over the coming decades, including in developing economies in India and Africa. The projections also show that renewable energy sources and new technologies such as hydrogen, geothermal, and carbon capture will need to grow at unprecedented rates. The authors noted large gaps in the outcomes between the “evolving” and “ambitious” climate policy scenarios—a sign that nations need to enact more stringent climate and energy policies to reach international climate goals.
However, the projections show a wide range of possibilities for the future of carbon dioxide emissions, electricity generation, and energy demand. Like in previous years, the Global Energy Outlook shows no definitive pathway for each—rather many different paths that depend on global choices.
Expert Perspective
“New technologies are revolutionizing the energy landscape. Artificial intelligence is increasing electricity demand, while geothermal and hydrogen may help us rise to that challenge. These technologies weren’t really on the radar a few years ago. It makes me wonder—what is being developed now that could change the game in a few years?”
—Yuqi Zhu, RFF senior research associate
📚 Where can I learn more?
Read the report, Global Energy Outlook 2025: Headwinds and Tailwinds in the Energy Transition, by RFF researchers Yuqi Zhu, Daniel Raimi, Emily Joiner, Brandon Holmes, and Brian Prest.
Be sure to check out the interactive Global Energy Outlook data tool.
The authors will share more about the report during an RFF webinar on April 9 at 2 p.m. ET. A panel discussion about long-term outlooks for energy markets will follow the authors’ presentation and will feature leading experts working at the nexus of energy and artificial intelligence, global development, energy outlooks, and climate policy. You can RSVP here.
Resources for the Future (RFF) is an independent, nonprofit research institution in Washington, DC. Its mission is to improve environmental, energy, and natural resource decisions through impartial economic research and policy engagement. RFF is committed to being the most widely trusted source of research insights and policy solutions leading to a healthy environment and a thriving economy.
Unless otherwise stated, the views expressed here are those of the individual authors and may differ from those of other RFF experts, its officers, or its directors. RFF does not take positions on specific legislative proposals.
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