Fire-Prone Regions of the American West Have Fast-Growing Job Markets
A new report from Resources for the Future finds that areas that are the most prone to wildfire in the American West are also the fastest-growing job centers.
💡What’s the story?
A new report from Resources for the Future (RFF) finds that areas that are the most prone to wildfire in the American West are also the fastest-growing job centers. Approximately 1.7 million jobs as of 2020 are in areas with very high wildfire risk, double the number in 1990. Over 30 years, job growth in very high wildfire hazard areas grew by 103 percent, while jobs in the West overall grew by 73 percent over the same period.
Several “hot spots” account for most of this growth, with southern California leading the way. By far, California has the most jobs in at-risk areas. The area accounts for 60 percent of jobs in high and very high wildfire risk categories across the West.
Expert Perspective
“Wildfires are a major threat to livelihoods in the American West. When wildfires rip through communities, people not only lose their homes, they sometimes lose their jobs, too. Recovery is much harder when you don’t have financial security, health insurance, and all of the other protections that employment offers.”
—Emily Joiner, RFF Research Associate
🗺️How do we know?
RFF’s researchers analyzed job and wage trends across 11 western US states from 1990 to 2020. They assessed the intersection of job growth and five wildfire hazard categories—very low, low, medium, high, and very high—and examined how employment in high and very high risk areas differed from the region as a whole. By working with data on individual establishments across the West, merged with data on wildfire hazard potential, the researchers could pinpoint the most at-risk areas that have a lot of economic activity.
Expert Perspective
“Growth in population and growth in industry reinforce each other. People move to high hazard places for a number of reasons, including housing affordability and proximity to amenities. Businesses and jobs follow. And if an area has more hotels, restaurants, and shops, more people move to these at-risk areas. It creates a feedback loop.”
—Matthew Wibbenmeyer, RFF Fellow
🔥Where are the hot spots?
While significant swaths of the West are at risk of fire, six areas stood out for their high employment growth rates and very high wildfire risk. In 2020, these six regions accounted for 85 percent of the approximately 1.7 million jobs and 81 percent of the wages earned in the areas with the highest wildfire hazard. These hot spots are located in:
- Southern California (1 million jobs)
- Denver-Boulder area of Colorado (117,500 jobs)
- Sierra Nevada foothills of California (94,500 jobs)
- Southern Oregon (73,000 jobs)
- Flagstaff-Globe area in Arizona (45,500 jobs)
- Central Utah near Salt Lake City (43,000 jobs)
In Southern California, the number of jobs increased 114 percent across the study period. Across the other hot spots, employment grew by 127 percent. However, in the West as a whole, the job-growth rate was significantly lower at 73 percent.
Share of Jobs by Wildfire Hazard Category by State in 2020
Expert Perspective
“For now, rapid employment growth in wildfire-prone areas seems to be mostly contained to six hot spots. But new hot spots may emerge over the coming years and decades as more people and businesses establish themselves in risky areas. It is up to policymakers to ensure that economic development and resilience policies are aligned so that new growth occurs in the safest locations.”
—Margaret Walls, RFF Senior Fellow
🏙️ Which jobs are most affected?
The analysis looked at which industries are affected most by wildfire and found few differences across wildfire risk categories. Many jobs in administration, education, health, and public services are in very high-risk areas; these are the industries with the most jobs in every area, they are not affected disproportionately.
Although jobs in high wildfire risk areas tend to have slightly lower wages than jobs elsewhere in the West, the Southern California hot spot appears to be an exception. Average wages there are 45 percent higher than in other very high fire risk areas in the West.
📚Where can I learn more?
For more, read the report, Job Exposure to Wildfire Risk in the American West, by RFF Research Associate Emily Joiner, Senior Fellow Margaret Walls, and Fellow Matthew Wibbenmeyer.
Resources for the Future (RFF) is an independent, nonprofit research institution in Washington, DC. Its mission is to improve environmental, energy, and natural resource decisions through impartial economic research and policy engagement. RFF is committed to being the most widely trusted source of research insights and policy solutions leading to a healthy environment and a thriving economy.
Unless otherwise stated, the views expressed here are those of the individual authors and may differ from those of other RFF experts, its officers, or its directors. RFF does not take positions on specific legislative proposals.
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