Modeling Growth for the Nation's Capital: A Work in Transit

Modeling Growth for the Nation's Capital: A Work in Transit
March 27, 2007

An RFF Workshop on Land Use, Transportation, and Economic Activity in the
Washington, D.C., Region

This one-day workshop explores the potential use of LUSTRE, a new, integrated model developed at Resources for the Future that simulates land use, transportation, and economic activity in the Washington, D.C., region.

For workers and consumers, LUSTRE utilizes real-world decisions on employment, residential location, and discretionary travel, such as shopping trips. For local producers and employers, it includes production, employment, and location decisions. For developers, it includes decisions about residential, industrial, or commercial development.

Embedded in LUSTRE is a fully behaviorally integrated urban transportation model representing motorists' choices over a wide variety of options - including destinations, routes, travel modes, and times of day - that make the model highly realistic. As a result, LUSTRE is an ideal tool for examining the long-run trade-offs of such public interventions as transport investments and land-use regulations for development, traffic congestion, air quality, and overall welfare.

This workshop demonstrated the model's flexibility and versatility by using it to examine two policies of longstanding local interest: the proposed Intercounty Connector and the use of "infill" development to curb both traffic congestion and urban sprawl. We also discussed what other important policy questions can be addressed using LUSTRE.

Video and Audio

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Welcome and Setting the Stage
Alan Krupnick, RFF Senior Fellow Alan Krupnick is a senior fellow and director of the Quality of the Environment Division at RFF. His research focuses on analyzing environmental issues, in particular, the benefits, costs, and design of air pollution policies, both in the United States and in developing countries.		Real
He has served as a senior economist on the President's Council of Economic Advisers and co-chaired an advisory committee that counseled EPA on new ozone and particulate standards.
Elena Safirova, RFF Fellow Elena Safirova is a fellow at RFF and is the principal architect of the LUSTRE model. In her current research, she focuses on economic modeling and policy analysis related to transportation and urban land use.She is also interested in the impacts of technological change on urban spatial structure, labor markets, industrial organization, and the environment. One of her specialties is research on telecommuting and its effects on transportation and the economy.		Real Presentation Slides
Ken Small, University of California, Irvine Ken Small is research professor and professor emeritus of economics at the University of California, Irvine, where he specializes in urban, transportation, and environmental economics.		Real
He has served for five years as co-editor of the international journal Urban Studies and is now associate editor of Transportation Research Part B. He has served on several study committees of the National Research Council, most recently one that examined a federal program on congestion management and air quality.

I. Evaluating Alternative Strategies to Promote Infill Development
Tim Wheeler, Moderator, The Baltimore Sun Tim Wheeler reports on urban and regional growth issues for The Baltimore Sun, where he has been a reporter and editor for 22 years, covering the environment, local and state government, higher education, transportation, and science and medicine.		Real
His coverage of growth issues was honored last year by the Maryland chapter of the American Planning Association.
Winston Harrington Presenter, RFF Senior Fellow   Winston Harrington is a senior fellow at RFF. His research interests include urban trans- portation, motor vehicles and air quality, and problems of estimating the costs of environmental policy.		Real Presentation Slides
He has worked extensively on the economics of enforcing environmental regulations, health benefits derived from improved air quality, the costs of waterborne disease outbreaks, endangered species policy, and the economics of outdoor recreation. He is also on the adjunct faculty at Georgetown University.
Sam Zimmerman-Bergman, Respondent, Reconnecting America Sam Zimmerman-Bergman is project director with Reconnecting America, where he is an urban designer with a background in transit-oriented development planning and pedestrian-oriented design projects.		Real
Prior to that, he spent 5 years managing regional and site-specific planning and design projects in the San Francisco Bay Area and western United States, including development of a TOD policy framework and the inception of a Joint Development program for the planned Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit (SMART) system north of San Francisco.
Stephen Fuller, Respondent, George Mason University Stephen Fuller is director of the Center for Regional Analysis at the George Mason University School of Public Policy, which develops information on economic, housing, and employment trends in the Washington, DC, metropolitan area.		Real
He is also Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor at George Mason. His research focuses on the changing structure of metropolitan-area economies and measuring of their current and near-term performance. He was appointed by Governor Kane to the Governor’s Advisory Board of Economists.
Q and A		Real