Roger M. Cooke
Senior Fellow Emeritus
Roger Cooke is a senior fellow emeritus at RFF and an expert on expert judgment, uncertainty analysis, high dimensional dependence modeling, and value of information, especially for climate observing satellites. Notable recent publications address Validation of Expert Forecasters, Ice Sheet Contributions to Sea Level Rise, Value of Information for Climate Observing Systems, Probabilistic Reasoning about Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity, Global Burden of Disease, Invasive Species, Fat-Tailed Distributions, Insurance for Fat-Tailed Risks, Market Methods for Valuing Uncertainty Reduction and Breastfeeding and IQ. Short videos are available online. He was a lead author on the chapter Risk and Uncertainty in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Graduating Phi Beta Kappa and Magna Cum Laude from Yale University, he received the Oeuvre Award for Risk Management (2005) and the Society for Risk Analysis Lifetime Distinguished Achievement Award (2011). He is recognized as one of the world's leading authorities on mathematical modeling of risk and uncertainty. His books on Expert Judgment, Risk Analysis, and Dependence Modeling are standards in their fields. His work figures prominently in two recent compendiums on Expert Judgment and Risk Analysis.
Prior to joining Resources for the Future in September 2005 as the first appointee to the Chauncey Starr Chair in Risk Analysis, Cooke was a professor of applied decision theory at the Department of Mathematics at Delft University of Technology in The Netherlands. Serving there for over 25 years he launched and led a Master’s Program in Risk and Environmental Modeling. He led the development of Bayes Nets software UNINET for high dimensional distributions under contract with The Dutch Ministry of Environment and later Shell and AIRBUS (free for academics). His current research focus is on policy-relevant applications of structured expert judgment and uncertainty analysis.
Education
- PhD in Mathematics and Philosophy, Yale University, 1974
- BA in Mathematics and Philosophy, Yale University, 1968
Featured Content
- Highlights
- Publications
- Events
- Editorial
- News
Journal Article — Oct 19, 2022
A Retrospective Assessment of COVID-19 Model Performance in the USA
This study presents a worthwhile method for appropriately assessing the performance of probabilistic forecasts and can potentially improve both public health decision-making and COVID-19 modeling.
Journal Article — Oct 3, 2022
Ice Sheet and Climate Processes Driving the Uncertainty in Projections of Future Sea Level Rise
The authors' findings identify key processes and factors that need to be addressed in future modeling and observational studies in order to reduce uncertainties in ice sheet projections.
Journal Article — Sep 1, 2022
Comprehensive Evidence Implies a Higher Social Cost of CO₂
A multi-year study of the social cost of carbon, a critical input for climate policy analysis, finds that every additional ton of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere costs society $185—far higher than the current federal estimate of $51 per ton.
Journal Article — Jun 20, 2022
Averaging Quantiles, Variance Shrinkage, and Overconfidence
Averaging quantiles as a way of combining experts' judgments is studied both mathematically and empirically.
Journal Article — Oct 19, 2022
A Retrospective Assessment of COVID-19 Model Performance in the USA
This study presents a worthwhile method for appropriately assessing the performance of probabilistic forecasts and can potentially improve both public health decision-making and COVID-19 modeling.
Journal Article — Oct 3, 2022
Ice Sheet and Climate Processes Driving the Uncertainty in Projections of Future Sea Level Rise
The authors' findings identify key processes and factors that need to be addressed in future modeling and observational studies in order to reduce uncertainties in ice sheet projections.
Journal Article — Sep 1, 2022
Comprehensive Evidence Implies a Higher Social Cost of CO₂
A multi-year study of the social cost of carbon, a critical input for climate policy analysis, finds that every additional ton of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere costs society $185—far higher than the current federal estimate of $51 per ton.
Journal Article — Jun 20, 2022
Averaging Quantiles, Variance Shrinkage, and Overconfidence
Averaging quantiles as a way of combining experts' judgments is studied both mathematically and empirically.
Webinar — Jan 17, 2019
Using the Social Cost of Carbon to Value Earth Observing Systems
Presented at the RFF-CMCC European Institute
Workshop — Jun 4, 2014
Limits to Securitization: The Future of Insurance
Limits to Securitization: The Future of Insurance
Workshop — Jun 12, 2013
Ice Sheets on the Move
Ice Sheets on the Move
Workshop — Mar 7, 2012
Invasive Species: Impacts, Challenges, and Strategies for Management
Invasive Species: Impacts, Challenges, and Strategies for Management
Resources Magazine — Oct 21, 2021
Working Toward a New Social Cost of Carbon
The social cost of carbon (SCC) can have a major impact on the US government's climate regulations, but estimating its value can get complicated. RFF researchers aim to make the best possible estimate using cutting-edge empirical and scientific data.
Common Resources — Jul 27, 2020
The Science of Forecasting: The Special Sauce
RFF Senior Fellow Roger M. Cooke assesses why expert predictions are so often misleading and how correcting for uncertainty can offer more trustworthy forecasts.
Common Resources — May 23, 2019
Sea Level Rise, Uncertainty, and Climate Decisions: Falling into the Confidence Trap
Sea Level Rise, Uncertainty, and Climate Decisions: Falling into the Confidence Trap
Common Resources — May 20, 2019
The Iceman Cometh: Ice Sheet Contributions to Future Sea Level Rise
Future sea level rise poses serious threats to the viability of coastal communities but continues to be challenging to project using deterministic modeling approaches.
Press Release — Sep 9, 2021
New Research Updates Key Elements of the Social Cost of Carbon
New Research Updates Key Elements of the Social Cost of Carbon
Press Release — May 20, 2019
New Study, Blog on Predicting Future Sea Level Rise
RFF's Roger Cooke coauthored a new study and wrote a blog about uncertainty, sea level rise, and structured expert judgment.
Media Highlight — May 17, 2018
New Insights in Us Earthquakes Thanks to Delft Software
New Insights in Us Earthquakes Thanks to Delft Software
Media Highlight — Feb 1, 2018
Oklahoma’s Earthquakes Strongly Linked to Wastewater Injection Depth
Oklahoma’s Earthquakes Strongly Linked to Wastewater Injection Depth