Abstract: Several different economic models have been applied to try to understand how new regulations by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) could impact coal-fired generation in the United States as well as the electricity system as a whole. This paper provides an overview of many of the key studies and the models used to analyze the potential impacts of EPA’s rules. The regulations surveyed include the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR), the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS), the proposed Clean Water Act (CWA) Section 316(b) rule, and the proposed Coal Combustion Residuals (CCR) rule. The models generally agree that these regulations will result in coal plant retirements, though there is far less agreement on how much generation may retire. Assumptions about the price of natural gas and the expected stringency of regulations play a key role in determining modeling results. The models provide useful guidance for policymakers when considering the potential impact of EPA regulation.

Abstract: Tropical forests provide critical global and local ecosystem services and habitat for many of the world’s plants and animals. Their loss threatens the sustainable economic growth and social stability of developing countries, and illegal deforestation abroad places U.S. producers at an unfair disadvantage. For these and other reasons, the United States has long been engaged in programs to reduce forest loss. This engagement has recently increased, with the new Presidential Global Climate Change Initiative including a pillar dedicated to slowing forest loss. While promising, this new funding and coordination is insufficient, with a narrow focus on climate-based development assistance. Engaging the full suite of forest policy levers in the federal government, or taking a “whole-of-government” approach, would provide greater immediate impact in preventing forest loss while building the foundations of a working landscape ethic. In this discussion paper, we explore the opportunities to expand U.S. contributions to reducing tropical deforestation through this approach. A whole-of-government approach to international deforestation consists of coordinating and focusing the programs across the federal government that could reduce the rate of tropical forest loss. It is an integrated strategy that employs existing activities and authorities of the U.S. government and directs them under an overarching goal of reducing deforestation in tropical forest countries, while continuing to support other developing-country goals, such as economic development, health, food security, and biodiversity. We identify three major areas where policy adjustments and actions by relevant authorities can have immediate and tangible impact on reducing deforestation.