Abstract: In developing countries, consumers can buy many goods either in formal markets or in informal markets and decide where to purchase based on the product's price and anticipated quality. We assume consumers cannot assess quality prior to purchase and cannot, at reasonable cost, identify who produced the good they are considering. Many products (meats, fruits, vegetables, fish, grains) sold both in formal groceries and, less formally, on the street fit this description. We assume that producers can adjust quality at a cost and only firms in the formal sector are subject to government regulation. In the long run, producers migrate to the sector that is more profitable. Using this model, we demonstrate how regulations in the formal sector can lead to a quality gap between formal and informal sector goods. We moreover investigate how changes in regulation affect quality, price, aggregate production, and the number of firms in each sector.

Abstract: Today a new generation of food safety policy is emerging in OECD countries and international public health forums. The United States has actively contributed to the thinking and scientific researchunderlying this new generation of policy. A consensus has emerged among nations about the basic components of an effective food safety system based on modern science and management practices. In shorthand, the vision is of a farm-to-fork, risk-based, scientifically supported safety control system. This system is built on several decades of experience with risk management in national governments,particularly in U.S. environmental and occupational and consumer safety policy. This paper describes the elements of a risk-based, farm-to-fork food safety system as it is emerging in OECD countries guided by discussions through Codex Alimentarius and traces its roots in the development of risk management policy in the United States.

Abstract: This paper provides an overview of developments in food safety policy in major industrial countries and of economic analysis of this policy. It describes the elements of a risk-based, farm-to-fork food safety system as it is emerging in OECD countries guided by discussions through Codex Alimentarius and traces its roots in the development of risk management policy in the United States. Thegoal of this paper is to provide a nontechnical introduction to food safety policy and economics for students, economists and others interested in food safety policy, but new to the field.

Abstract: In markets for fruits, vegetables, and many imported goods, consumers cannot discern quality prior to purchase and can never identify the producer. Producing high-quality, safe goods is costly and raisesthe "collective reputation" for quality shared with rival arms. Minimum quality standards imposed on all arms improve welfare. If consumers can observe the country of origin of a product, quality, profits, and welfare increase. If one country imposes a minimum quality standard on its exports, consumers benefit, the profits of arms in the country with regulation rise, and the profits of arms in countries without regulation fall.

Abstract: Food with inputs from genetically modified organisms (GMOs) has met considerable skepticism among European Union (EU) consumers. The EU import ban on GM food has triggered a great deal of controversy and has been replaced by a mandatory labeling scheme. This study hadtwo foci. First, we examined how different policies for the production and use of GMOs might influence the market outcome in consumer food markets. Second, we evaluated the welfare effectsof the policy measures. We found that mandatory labeling often increases domestic welfare and, moreover, that in most cases it increases global welfare. On the other hand, a trade ban is morelikely to decrease global welfare.

Abstract: Decision analysts are frequently called on to help inform decisionmakers in situations where there is considerable uncertainty. In such situations, expert elicitation of parameter values is frequently used to supplement more conventional research. This paper develops a formal protocol for expert elicitation with large, heterogeneous expert panels. We use formal survey methods to take advantage of variation in individual expert uncertainty and heterogeneity among experts as a means of quantifying and comparing sources of uncertainty about parameters of interest. We illustrate use of this protocol with an expert elicitation on the distribution of U.S. foodborne illness from each of 11 major foodborne pathogens to the consumption of one of 11 categories of food. Results show how multiple measures of uncertainty, made feasible by use of a large panel of experts, can help identify which of several types of risk management actions may be most appropriate.

Abstract: Determining the best use of food safety resources is a difficult task faced by public policymakers, regulatory agencies, state and local food safety and health agencies, as well as private firms. The Food Safety Research Consortium (FSRC) has developed a conceptual framework for priority setting and resource allocation for food safety that takes full account of the food system’s complexity and available data but is simple enough to be workable and of practical value to decisionmakers. The conceptual framework addresses the question of how societal resources, both public and private, can be used most effectively to reduce the public health burden of foodborne illness by quantitatively ranking risks and considering the availability, effectiveness, and cost of interventions to address these risks. We identify two types of priority-setting decisions: Purpose 1 priority setting that guides risk-based allocation of food safety resources, primarily by government food safety agencies, across a wide range of opportunities to reduce the public health impact of foodborne illness; and Purpose 2 priority setting that guides the choice of risk management actions and strategies with respect to particular hazards and commodities. It is essential that such a framework be grounded in a systems approach, multi-disciplinary in approach and integration of data, practical, flexible, and dynamic by including ongoing evaluation and continuous updating of risk rankings and other elements. The conceptual framework is a synthesis of ideas and information generated in connection with and during the three FSRC workshops convened under a project funded by the Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service of USDA. Workshop materials are available on the project website: http://www.card.iastate.edu/food_safety/.

Abstract: To identify and prioritize effective food safety interventions, it is critical not only to identify the pathogens responsible for illness, but also to attribute cases of foodborne disease to the specific food vehicle responsible. A wide variety of such “food attribution” approaches and data are used around the world, including the analysis of and extrapolation from outbreak and other surveillance data, case-control studies, microbial subtyping and source-tracking methods, and expert judgment, among others. The Food Safety Research Consortium sponsored the Food Attribution Data Workshop in October 2003 to discuss the virtues and limitations of these approaches and to identify future options for the collection of food attribution data in the United States. This discussion paper summarizes workshop discussions and identifies challenges that affect progress in this critical component of a risk-based approach to improving food safety.

Abstract: The disclosure in September 2000 that StarLink corn had been found in the human food supply putfood biotechnology in the public spotlight and caused concern among consumers and food systemstakeholders alike that a product approved only for animal use could find its way to grocery shelves. TheStarLink experience raises a number of issues that deserve study concerning the current regulatory systemand public policies affecting genetically modified foods. The issues include how to manage allergenicityissues posed by biotech foods at the approval stage. Most of the issues, however, involve post-approvalcontrol of staple food crops that have been genetically modified. It may be increasingly important in thefuture to maintain the identity of genetically modified crops and segregate them from conventional ones,yet neither the grain trading system nor the government regulatory system were designed to ensure this.This paper is the first step in a case study that Resources for the Future is conducting for the PewInitiative on Food and Biotechnology to identify and analyze the regulatory and public policy issuesraised by the StarLink episode. In this paper, we pose questions concerning the adequacy of curent legalauthority, regulatory procedures, and institutional arrangements for post-approval control of biotech foodsthat we intend to analyze in depth during the balance of the study based on interviews and other research.We welcome comment on this paper and the planned study.