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| | Fuel Prices and New Vehicle Fuel Economy—Comparing the United States and Western Europe | | Thomas Klier and Joshua Linn | | Journal of Environmental Economics and Management | forthcoming | Related Discussion Paper 11-37 | | | | | | The Effect of Voluntary Brownfields Programs on Nearby Property Values: Evidence from Illinois | | Joshua Linn | | Journal of Urban Economics | forthcoming | Related Discussion Paper 12-35 | | | | | | Automobile Usage and Urban Rail Transit Expansion | | Lunyu Xie | | RFF Discussion Paper EfD 12-17 | December 2012 | | Abstract: Using individual travel diary data collected before and after the rail transit coverage expansion in urban Beijing, this paper estimates the impact of rail accessibility improvement on the usage of rail transit, automobiles, buses, walking, and bicycling, measured as percent distance traveled by each mode in an individual trip. My results indicate that the average rail transit usage significantly increased, by 98.3% for commuters residing in the zones where the distances to the nearest station decreased because of the expansion, relative to commuters in the zones where the distances did not change. I also find that auto usage significantly decreased, by 19.8%, while the impact on bus usage was small and not statistically significant. Average walking and bicycling distance (combined) increased by 11.8%, indicating that walking and bicycling are complements to urban rail transit, instead of substitutes. Furthermore, I find that estimated changes in auto usage and rail transit usage vary significantly with auto ownership and income. | | | | The Effect of Voluntary Brownfields Programs on Nearby Property Values: Evidence from Illinois | | Joshua Linn | | RFF Discussion Paper 12-35 | August 2012 | | Related journal article | | Abstract: Brownfields are properties for which redevelopment is hampered by known or suspected contamination and by concerns about associated liability. Because failing to redevelop brownfields may negatively affect welfare and the environment, a number of states have created voluntary programs to reduce liability risks and encourage redevelopment of brownfields. For clean or remediated properties, the state certifies that owners of such sites are not subject to federal or state liability under certain conditions. Certification could increase nearby property values because of decreased contamination risk and amenities associated with redeveloping the brownfield. This paper focuses on the Site Remediation Program in Illinois, and estimates the effect of brownfields certification on nearby property values. Employing several strategies to account for unobserved and time-varying variables that may be correlated with certification, I find that certification of a brownfield 0.25 miles away raises property values by about one percent. In aggregate, the program has increased nearby property values by about two percent. | | | | Using Vehicle Taxes to Reduce Carbon Dioxide Emissions Rates of New Passenger Vehicles: Evidence from France, Germany, and Sweden | | Thomas Klier, Joshua Linn | | RFF Discussion Paper 12-34 | August 2012 | | Abstract: France, Germany, and Sweden link vehicle taxes to the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions rates of passenger vehicles. Based on new vehicle registration data from 2005–2010, a vehicle’s tax is negatively correlated with its registrations. The effect is somewhat stronger in France than in Germany and Sweden. Taking advantage of the theoretical equivalence between an emissions rate standard and a CO2-based emissions rate tax, we estimate the effect on manufacturers’ profits of reducing emissions rates. For France, a decrease of 5 grams of CO2 per kilometer reduces profits by 24 euros per vehicle. We find considerable heterogeneity across manufactures and countries. | | | | Aviation, Carbon, and the Clean Air Act | | Nathan Richardson | | RFF Discussion Paper 12-22 | July 2012 | | Abstract: This paper explores the policy options available to the United States for regulating greenhouse gas emissions from aircraft under existing law: the Clean Air Act (CAA). Europe has unilaterally and controversially moved to include aviation emissions in its Emissions Trading System. The United States can, however, allow its airlines to escape this requirement by imposing “equivalent” regulation. U.S. aviation emissions rules could also have significant environmental benefits and would limit domestic emissions beyond the reach of the European Union. With new legislation unlikely, the CAA is the only plausible vehicle for such regulation. Title II Part B of the CAA does grant EPA broad regulatory authority over aviation emissions, though this authority has not been used aggressively. EPA could impose meaningful aviation GHG limits and, by using performance standards, give airlines incentives to creatively comply. It might further be possible to allow some forms of emissions trading, though the law is unclear. Emissions by foreign airlines in the United States could be covered under the act, though international law might impose barriers. | | | | The Heterogeneous Effects of Gasoline Taxes: Why Where We Live Matters | | Elisheba Beia Spiller, Heather M. Stephens | | RFF Discussion Paper 12-30 | July 2012 | | Abstract: Using disaggregated confidential household data, we estimate spatial variation in household-level gasoline price elasticities and the welfare effects of gasoline taxes. A novel approach allows us to model a discrete-continuous household choice of vehicle bundles, while disaggregating the choice set and including vehicle-specific fixed effects and unobserved consumer heterogeneity. The mean elasticity of demand for gasoline is -0.67, but with tremendous variation across location and income. We find that rural households have 30 percent more negative welfare impacts than urban households from gasoline taxes. Finally, we explore different policies that can help to mitigate welfare inequalities due to these taxes. | | | | Informing Climate Adaptation: A Review of the Economic Costs of Natural Disasters, Their Determinants, and Risk Reduction Options | | Carolyn Kousky | | RFF Discussion Paper 12-28 | July 2012 | | Abstract: This paper reviews the empirical literature on the economic impacts of natural disasters to inform both climate adaptation policy and the estimation of potential climate damages. It covers papers that estimate the short- and long-run economic impacts of weather-related extreme events as well as studies regarding the determinants of the magnitude of those damages (including fatalities). The paper also includes a discussion of risk reduction options and the use of such measures as an adaptation strategy for predicted changes in extreme events with climate change. | | | | Explaining Sprawl with an Agent-Based Model of Exurban Land and Housing Markets | | Nicholas Magliocca, Virginia D. McConnell, Margaret A. Walls, Elena A. Safirova | | RFF Discussion Paper 11-33 | June 2012 | | Abstract: This paper develops a model of land use in a growing community on the urban fringe and uses it to explore the spatial patterns and time path of development. The model is an agent-based model (ABM) of housing and land markets that includes as agents farmer/landowners, a developer who buys land and builds houses, and consumers who purchase housing. Housing is characterized by lot size and house size. As in all ABMs, macro-scale patterns emerge from many micro-scale interactions between individual agents, which are modeled computationally. In contrast to many other ABMs, however, the fundamentals of microeconomic decisionmaking are built into the model—consumers choose houses to maximize utility; farmers compare returns from agriculture to the expected value of their land in development; and developers purchase land and build houses so as to maximize profits. Model simulations reveal some aspects of sprawl such as “leapfrog” development, yet also confirm some results from traditional urban economic models, such as declining density and rent (land price) gradients. Sensitivity analyses on the utility function parameters, the distribution of agricultural productivity, and the travel costs highlight the importance of the economic features of the model. | | | | Improving Fuel Economy in Heavy-Duty Vehicles | | Winston Harrington, Alan J. Krupnick | | RFF Discussion Paper 12-02 | March 2012 | | Abstract: In September 2011, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency promulgated the first-ever federal regulations mandating fuel economy improvements for heavy-duty commercial vehicles. While the performance-based approach to these rules offers familiarity and assurances of fuel economy improvements, it also has some well-known weaknesses. In this paper, we describe fuel economy technologies for the trucking sector, its economic structure, the details of the new fuel economy regulations, and the controversies they sparked. We then address issues raised in reviewing the accompanying regulatory impact analysis. Next, we highlight some flaws of this form of regulation and suggest a variety of alternative, more market-oriented approaches that might work better. | | | | Zoning on the Urban Fringe: Results from a New Approach to Modeling Land and Housing Markets | | Nicholas Magliocca, Virginia McConnell, Margaret Walls, and Elena Safirova | | Regional Science and Urban Economics | January 2012 | 42 | pp 198-210 | | | | | | Zoning on the Urban Fringe: Results from a New Approach to Modeling Land and Housing Markets | | Nicholas Magliocca, Virginia McConnell, Margaret Walls, and Elena Safirova | | Regional Science and Urban Economics | January 2012 | 42 | pp 198-210 | | | | | | Fuel Tax Incidence in Costa Rica: Gasoline versus Diesel | | Allen Blackman, Rebecca Osakwe, and Francisco Alpizar | | Fuel Taxes and the Poor: The Distributional Effects of Gasoline Taxation and Their Implications for Climate Policy | Thomas Sterner, ed. | RFF Press | 2011 | Chapter 5 | | | | | | Evaluating “Cash-for-Clunkers: Program Effects on Auto Sales and the Environment | | Shanjun Li, Joshua Linn, Elisheba Beia Spiller | | RFF Discussion Paper 10-39-REV | October 2011 | | Related journal article | | Abstract: “Cash-for-Clunkers” was a $3 billion program that attempted to stimulate the U.S. economy and improve the environment by encouraging consumers to retire older vehicles and purchase more fuel-efficient new vehicles. We investigate the effects of this program on new vehicle sales and the environment. Using Canada as the control group in a difference-in-differences framework, we find that the program increased new vehicle sales by about 0.36 million during July and August of 2009, implying that approximately 45 percent of the spending went to consumers who would have purchased a new vehicle anyway. Our results suggest no gain in sales beyond 2009 and hence no meaningful stimulus to the economy. In addition, the program will reduce CO2 emissions by only 9 to 28.4 million tons, implying a cost per ton ranging from $91 to $288 even after accounting for reduced criteria pollutants. | | | | New Vehicle Characteristics and the Cost of the Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standard | | Thomas Klier and Joshua Linn | | RAND Journal of Economics | forthcoming | Related Discussion Paper 10-50 | | | | | | Will Natural Gas Vehicles Be in Our Future? | | Alan J. Krupnick | | Issue Brief 11-06 | May 2011 | | | | | | Reforming the Tax System to Promote Environmental Objectives: An Application to Mauritius | | Ian W.H. Parry | | RFF Discussion Paper 11-20 | May 2011 | | Abstract: Fiscal instruments are potentially among the most effective, and cost-effective, options for addressing externalities related to poor air quality, urban road congestion, and greenhouse gases. This paper takes a case study, focused on Mauritius (a pioneer in the use of green taxes) to illustrate how existing taxes, especially on fuels and vehicles, could be reformed to better address these externalities. We discuss, in particular, an explicit carbon tax; a variety of options for reforming vehicle taxes to meet environmental, equity, and revenue objectives; and a progressive transition to usage-based vehicle taxes to address congestion. | | | | An Agent-Based Model of Coupled Housing and Land Markets | | Nicholas Magliocca, Elena Safirova, Virginia McConnell, and Margaret Walls | | Computers, Environment, and Urban Systems | May 2011 | Vol. 35, No.3 | pp. 183-191 | | | | | | The Cost of Fuel Economy in the Indian Passenger Vehicle Market | | Randy Chugh, Maureen L. Cropper, Urvashi Narain | | RFF Discussion Paper 11-12 | March 2011 | | Abstract: To investigate how fuel economy is valued in the Indian car market, we compute the cost to Indian consumers of purchasing a more fuel-efficient vehicle and compare it to the benefit of lower fuel costs over the life of the vehicle. We use hedonic price functions for four market segments (petrol hatchbacks, diesel hatchbacks, petrol sedans, and diesel sedans) to compute 95 percent confidence intervals for the marginal cost to the consumer of an increase in fuel economy. We find that the associated present value of fuel savings falls within the 95 percent confidence interval for some specifications, in all market segments, for the years 2002 through 2006. Thus, we fail to consistently reject the hypothesis that consumers appropriately value fuel economy. When we reject the null hypothesis, the marginal cost of additional fuel economy exceeds the present value of fuel savings, suggesting that consumers may, in fact, be overvaluing fuel economy. | | | | Toward a New National Energy Policy | | Kristin Hayes | | Resources | Winter/Spring 2011 (177) | | | | | |
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