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Expert Judgment Policy Symposium and Technical Workshop

EXPERT JUDGMENT: PROMISES AND PITFALLS

March 14 Agenda

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Roger CookeLink to Presentation Slides

Overview of expert judgment methods
(RCooke2ndDay.ppt, 96KB)

 

Technical Workshop

  1. Mock-up elicitation exercise
    Participants undergo a stylized elicitation in one of two areas: Air Quality or SARS
  2. Feedback from initial training followed by implementation of elicitation procedure
  3. Analysis of elicitation results
  4. Paired comparison stakeholder preference exercise
    Plenary session: preferences for policy options regarding fossil fuels.
  5. Analysis of result
  6. Wrap-up panel and discussion
    • What makes a good question?
    • How do you sit down with an expert and elicit these uncertainty distributions?
    • On what are the judgments based? How do we capture that?
    • How do you know when your expert is "done" with estimating a particular quantile? What is the elicitor's role in trying to determine that? What are different approaches you might take?
    • What do you do if you think your expert is gaming or being "strategic" in some way?  
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