Expert Judgment: Promises and Pitfalls
March 13 Agenda
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Welcome and Introduction
Phil Sharp, President, Resources for the Future
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Kate Probst, Senior Fellow, Resources for the Future
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Keynote Address
George Gray
Assistant Administrator, Office of Research and Development, U.S. EPA
Taking Uncertainty Seriously
Why Quantify Uncertainty?
M. Granger Morgan
Head and Professor, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University
Regulation Under Uncertainty
Chauncey Starr Senior Fellow in Risk Analysis, Resources for the Future
Expert Judgment: Recent Applications
Aspinall & Associates
M. Granger Morgan
Head and Professor, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University
Climate Change
Expert Judgment for PM2.5
John Evans
Senior Lecturer on Environmental Science, Harvard Center for Risk Analysis
Harvard Kuwait Project
Senior Consultant, Industrial Economics, Inc.
Round Table on Practical Issues
- When is use of expert judgment warranted?
- What is a typical budget?
- How do you select experts? How many?
- Do you pay experts?
- What is your policy regarding expert identities?
- Do you use group or individual assessments?
- Do you use experts for preference rankings?
Challenges for Policymakers and Practitioners: Uncertainty and the Regulatory Process
Bob Hetes, Senior Advisor for Regulatory Support, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, U.S. EPA
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Challenges for Policy Makers and Practitioners: Uncertainty, Expert Judgment, and the Regulatory Process
Alan Krupnick, Senior Fellow, Resources for the Future
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Are Decisionmakers at Home on the Range? Communicating Uncertainties in Regulatory Impact Analyses